There is no doubting that Novak Djokovic is the finest player on the planet. He has mental strength beyond most sportsman and rivalling Muhammad Ali. His tennis is as well rounded as anyone who has every played the game. He simply makes less mistakes than any tennis player who has ever played the game and performs consistently at a level that few ever reach. He is the right favourite for this event but is he a value 5/4 shot. We think not. He may well win but in this field he should be more like 2/1. He has enjoyed a break after the Olympics and may well have benefited from this but he just doesn’t look quite as hungry. I suppose that’s tough when you have over £100 million in the bank.
The thing is there are at least 6 people who can win this tournament and a few others who can knock anyone out on their day. These days guys go in to tournaments against the big 4 and just play flat out tennis from ball 1. Aiming at lines, power tennis and most fail because they cant maintain that level for 5 sets but every now and then one gets through and that’s why 5/4 about Novak and 7/4 about Andy Murray just isn’t good value when they take on 5 gun slingers before they get to the business end. Murray is tired. Why he played after the Olympics I will never know, apart from to acclimatise himself to the US but surely that could have been done more easily. So if these two aren’t value then there must be some more value elsewhere. There is!
Juan Martin Del Potro was immense against Murray in the Olympics and has to be backed at 20/1. He just didn’t have the match fitness or belief after so long off with injury. He will have come on for the run and his confidence (all important to him) will be high. He could bounce but I don’t think so.
We can also get 20/1 about Milos Roanic and one of these two will make the final so we have to back them each way at these prices. The other player that is fearless on the court and is steadily improving is Nick Kyrgios – he only needs to mature mentally and he will win. This might be the last time he is 66/1.