We got off to another flyer yesterday with a 10/1 winner of the opener and then a 20/1 placed in the second race. Today see’s more terrific horses and some outstanding racing and prospects. The excitement continues. Punting isn’t always about winning (yes it is Ed), yes its that much more pleasurable when you do but getting a good shout in for a 20/1 shot and the expectation of a big pay out is great for the spirit. Winning is better so let’s find some more winners today.
2.30 Norfolk Stakes Group 2 5f
Lets be aggressive about this race and say straight away that only one of 5 horses can win. If that’s the case then we are a 4/1 shot to find the winner before looking deeply at the form. Red Lodge is the sole filly in the field and Wesley Ward has already had the mighty impressive winner in Lady Aurelia, its improbable that he has two immense talents in the one stable, unless they are feeding their juveniles something we haven’t seen yet and whilst she was very impressive in her sole run this has to be too much for her to sparkle today. Silver Line for Godolphin won a Nottingham maiden in taking style and has lots of upside but needs to improve nearly a stone to take this race on previous evidence – not impossible but unlikely. Legendary Lunch has won 2 from 3 but looks vulnerable to me over 5 furlongs and has to improve 7lbs to take a hand in this race which leaves us with Peace Envoy and Global Applause. Peace Envoy accounted for Lundy in a listed race at Naas last time out and on a strict line of form Lundy was well beaten by Mehmas earlier in the week who was beaten by Global Applause – if this was a mathematical equation then Global Applause wins. Sadly they are not machines but that doesn’t put me off a strong fancy and another winner for Frankie Dettori and Ed Dunlop, who was in sparkling form but just a little off the boil recently.
3.05 Tercentenary Stakes – Group 3 1 mile 2f
This is a race that is again framed around potential and punting is about opinions. Mine seems not to agree with bookmakers or pundits. For me Long Island Sound has performed well in easy races and this is tougher, so despite the wins I don’t see a progressive horse (I have been wrong before!!!)Abdon was 2nd to Hawkbill in only his second start and ran a big figure and should improve and is the favourite. I can see why but I dont like his sire who I think breeds soft horses and I couldn’t forgive myself if I lost money backing this horse at cramped odds. Prize Money, the Godolphn runner, is the likely pace setter and if not taken on could just steal it. For me, proven at the trip and capable of running a great time in these conditions. Steel of Madrid is the most progressive in my eyes with performances that go from 77-1o5 in a straight line. He is of course the most exposed. Blue De Vega might also carry the same warning – but not at 10f where I think the step up will really suit. I think we need two against the field here at decent prices, they are:-
3.40 The Ribblesdale Stakes – Group 2 1 mile 4f
There is only one question in this race. Has Architecture recovered from finishing second in the Oaks 13 days ago. If you think the answer is yes then you have to lump in to this horse. Ralph (pronounced Rafe as only certain families can!) Beckett’s horses are in great nick. He knows how to look after one and every other horse in the race has to improve almost a stone to get to what she is capable off. She may well be able to run below that form and still win. There was daylight behind her and Minding at Ascot and they were meant to be the best at this trip. So are this lot the 2nd best and if so does she have to be at her best to win today? My money says she will romp home – but I thought that about the Japanese horse yesterday (wealth warning)
4.20 The Gold Cup Group 1 2mile 4f
What a race this is. I love staying races and this sees a vintage renewal. I have eliminated, reluctantly, half the field on the grounds that they don’t quite look the type capable of winning a race of this calibre. I think the winner is in these nine horses. Clever Cookie who will love the ground but may just find this trip 2 furlongs too far. Fun Mac, who was second at this trip but hasn’t had the benefit of a run this year, which he did have last year. Flying Officer and Mizzou who fought out a contest earlier in the year with the latter named triumphing on that occasion Mille Et Mille, the French raider who has won a Group 1 over this trip in France. Max Dynamite who was accounted for by Pallasator, the Sir Mark Prescott runner, at Sandown in their prep race and finally Order of St George who is the class horse, won over 14f and is the favourite for a trainer in Aiden O’Brien, who has won this race 6 times in the last 10 years. In getting to a bet I am dodging the favourite. This trip is 6 furlongs further than he has ever been and I cant take evens knowing that. If he is a banker then so be it. I will applaud loudly. I will take proven breeding and a little potential for my two against the field who I also think have a touch of class
5.00 Brittannia Class 1 Hcp 1 mile
Two favourites in the last 10 runnings have won this race so you need to look outside the box sometimes. I always do my research before seeing any prices and I don’t know as I write this who the favourite is or how they bet it. My six for starters are Manson, Abe Lincoln, Out and About, Garcia and Yattwee. There is something about the way Yattwee won that makes me think this horse has an awful lot of ability and that this handicap is just the start. Garcia won over a mile at Haydock on good to soft and is logical and Out and About’s win has been franked by the 3rd going in since. I am going to back three in this race
5.35 King George V Handicap 1 mile 4f
I had a banker for this race – It was Red Verdon and then they decided to run it in the Derby, where it finished 5th. I think it would have been a good thing in this handicap!!!. So onwards and upwards. I can make a case for most in this handicap as you should be able to but there are three I like, Lovell who tries 12f for the first time but was staying on over 10f at Sandown on this ground and looked like an improver for further, Shraaoh who was an easy winner at Newcastle over 10f and seems to have a lot more in the tank and Midhmaar who I like as a horse and has finished second to good winners next time out (Primitivo who races today) and who also tries 12f for the first time. We will take two against the field